Who's The AL MVP? (Edited for the Senior Circuit!)

In April, it seemed rather clear that Alex Rodriguez was on his way to his 3rd AL MVP. 14 Homers. 34 RBI. 2 Walk Off Home Runs. No one could touch him.

In May, he slumped to the tune of about a .750 OPS, and someone passed him in VORP and in OPS.

Hello, Mr. Ordonez! Where have ye been?

That's right folks, Magglio Ordonez is trucking along to the tune of a .354 EQA and a league-leading 47.3 VORP. His 1.104 OPS, is 2nd in the AL behind Rodriguez.

So, it appears this whole MVP thing is turning into a quagmire! Who to chose?

Well, it's not like Rodriguez has simply quit. His own .344 EQA, 45.5 VORP and 1.110 OPS are all quite good. Also, his WARP1 is 5.1, besting Ordonez's 4.4. (WARP1 takes into account defense...Rodriguez is 2 runs above average at Third, Ordonez is 3 below average in Right.)

But, there's one key teeny-tiny little stat that should be considered. It's called BABIP. It means, in layman's terms, the percentage of balls put in play that turn into hits. Typical averages are around .280, and anything drastically lower or higher can usually point towards a regression to the mean.

Magglio Ordonez's 2007 BABIP: .383
Alex Rodriguez's 2007 BABIP: .306

Looks like Rodriguez is getting a few lucky bounces, while Ordonez is about 70 points higher than normal. He isn't likely to stay at .383 and when it drops, so will the Batting Average, (his own league-leading .371 average will end up around .300, and with it the VORP, EQA and OPS.)

So, if I voted today, my vote would have to go to Ordonez. But chances are, Magglio will regress, and Rodriguez will end up challenged by a superior hitter, one like Travis Hafner or Vladimir Guerrero.

Ok, on the to Senior Circuit folks.

If you watch ESPN, the first name that will pop into your head when someone says "NL MVP" is the new face of the Mets, Jose Reyes.

I can't say I'd disagree too much with that. The NL has a bunch of really good players so far, but no A-Rod type performance that sets someone apart.

Here are your NL leaders in VORP as of June 18th:

1. Matt Holliday- 35. 1
2. Miguel Cabrera- 34.4
3. Chase Utley- 32.9
4. Jose Reyes- 32.1
5. Hanley Ramirez- 31.2

Difference between #1 and #5? 3.9. That's incredibly close. Now, the NL Leaders in OPS:

1. Barry Bonds- 1.073
2. Matt Holliday- 1.015
3. Miguel Cabrera- 1.013
4. Prince Fielder- 1.011
5. Chase Utley- .969

Still incredibly close, at least between #1-#4. A familiar face fills the first position, and the Prince fills the 4 hole.

Matt Holliday is 1st in VORP and 2nd in OPS (with a .320 EqA and a 4.3 WARP1). However, Holliday's BABIP is incredible (.409) and therefore almost guaranteed to drop about 50 points (his career BABIP is .344) and with that most of his rate stats. Still, a 60 VORP year is well within his grasp.

Reyes and fellow young stud short-stop Hanley Ramirez nearly cancel one another out. 32.1 (Reyes) vs 31.2 (Ramirez) in VORP scores. .861 OPS vs .879 OPS. .306 vs .311 in EQA. 4.1 vs 3.4 in WARP1.

I can't really see a winner in that debate, so we'll move on to who I think has been the premier player in the NL this year (so far)...

Chase Utley.

Yep, Chase is the best player in the NL right now. His EqA is a fantastic .322, and his WARP1 is an incredible 5.3 (he's already provided the Phils with 5 wins, and it's June? Wha-what?) His BABIP is 2o points higher than normal, but this could end being Utley's career year.

(Note: this is all subject to change when Phat Albert reclaims his throne as the best player in baseball.)

The Cy-Young discussion will begin later this week!