Now that I've devoured the MVP debates (albeit in June), it's on to the hurlers. The usual candidates aren't really in the discussion this year, expect for one guy (he's been...oh the best pitcher in baseball since 2003.) The NL appears to be a different story this year, with 2005 NL Cy Young winner Chris Carpenter hurt, Dontrelle Willis being mediocre, and other regulars such as 2006 Champ Brandon Webb and Roy Oswalt being good, but not spectacular. However, one old-timer is making a hell of a case for being the NL's best pitcher so far.
The NL race is really only between three guys (so far.) Padres right hander Jake Peavy, Dodgers right hander Brad Penny and (wait for it...wait for it...) D-Backs lefty Randy Johnson.
No joke.
Among all pitchers with at least 50 innings pitched (to remove relievers) who has the highest K/9?
A. Johan Santana
B. Jake Peavy
C. Felix Hernandez
D. Randy Johnson
If you chose "D", you'd be correct. Johnson appears to be thriving in the weaker NL (the AL's better, but the gap is closing) after not being nearly as dominant (he was good last year but very un-lucky) in the AL for two years.
Now, quickly...who leads the NL in VORP?
It's not Johnson (his weak innings pitched total reduces him to 12.3), it's Peavy. Who's second? Penny.
Who leads the NL in Park-Adjusted Runs Allowed? Peavy. Second? Penny.
Now, who do you think has the two lowest HR/9 rates in the NL? Peavy and Penny. (Both are incredibly low and will not stay at their current rates of .10 for Peavy and .20 for Penny.)
If Johnson had about 40 more innings pitched, he'd probably be the favorite. However, he just went on the DL with a back injury (after off-season back surgery! Good News!) and is probably un-reliable to hit 150 IP.
My money, at this point and time, is on Peavy. His K rate is very solid, his BABIP is reasonable, and although the homers are gonna come up, it'd put his ERA at around 3.25 or so, and that's pretty good.
Okay, now to the AL.
Tell me if you've heard this before, but Johan Santana is the AL's best pitcher. Better than Haren. Better than Sabathia. Bedard is closer than you'd think, but I still like Johan.
Here's why:
1. Phenomenal K rate. After his 9.25 K rate in 2005 and 9.44 last year, his K/9 has jumped up to 10.16 this year. However, his BB/9 and HR/9 are also up. Could be nothing, but maybe Santana is going for the K more than he used to. Also, his G/F (Ground out to fly out) ratio is down.
2. Fantastic RA. Among AL pitchers with at least 50 IP, Santana ranks 14th with a 3.48 mark. Now, that in of itself isn't too stellar. But, considering the high HR rate, both are likely to come down. It'll end up in a Santana-esque range.
3. H/9. Santana is 7th in the AL, allowing 7.45 hits per 9 innings. That's a good mark, right in line with his 2 previous marks.
Now, on to Bedard. He's possibly Leo Mazzone's only shining star during his Baltimore tenure so far. He's leading the AL in K/9 (10.72), has a very nice 2.97 BB/9 rate (which means he has about a 4 K to BB ratio...tasty.) A solid H/9 rate of 8.33 and a homer an inning HR/9 rate rounds out the rate stats.
Now, why am I dismissing Dan Haren and John Lackey? Haren and Lackey are 1-2 in VORP, but Haren sports a .215 BABIP and Lackey's 6.90 K/9 rate makes their RAs (2.25 and 3.01) unreliable, and likely to go up. However, if someone did give the nod to Haren or Lackey, it wouldn't be grand theft.
Monday, June 18, 2007
Friday, June 15, 2007
The Dunn Dilemma
Rumor has it that the Cincinnati Reds are looking to deal their lefty slugger Adam Dunn. Dunn's the prototypical Three True Outcomes player, the kind of guy who hits a homer, walks or strikes out nearly 50% of the time. That tends to lead to a player not aging well, and that appears to be the case for Dunn. But let's ignore that for a second.
Why do the Reds want to deal Dunn?
1) They're out of contention. At 26-42, (but with a Pythagorean 30-37) the Reds have been unlucky, but still not particularly good. With top pitchers Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo and newly called up Homer Bailey locked up for 4, 4, and 6 years respectively, the Reds have a decent starting pitching core for the next few years. However, their best hitter this year, Ken Griffey Jr, is 37 years old and is, at this point, a near lock to top out at 400 ABs every year. Brandon Phillips, Joey Votto, Josh Hamilton and potentially Edwin Encarnacion form another decent core up the middle.
Still, even with average production from the rest of the spots in the lineup and rotation (a stretch), and above-average production from the "core" (Arroyo won't be a good starter in 3 years, Bailey could be a hit or miss guy, and some in the Reds organization consider Encarnacion a failure at this point), that's not necessarily a winner, even in the NL Central. The Brewers appear to have a decent team in line for the next few years, and the Cubs might be okay for a little while, depending on how Carlos Zambrano decides to get his money, either from the Cubs or from some other team.
2) The Fans and the Media in Cincy couldn't hate him anymore. Dunn's not a particularly alluring player. He's a serious defensive liability (5 runs below replacement in left field so far in 2007), strikes out a ton (he set the season record for K's in 04, and nearly bested it in 06), and his general "ogre-like" appearance and movements leave a bad taste in the mouths of many people. That's not to say he hasn't been a good player.
3) He's entering decline. Dunn was supposed to be a big ole' slugging machine, and for a while, it looked like he was entering a Jason Giambi-esque career path. His 2004 batting line was tremendous (.266/.388/.569, .316 EqA, 53.4 VORP, 6.5 WARP1, ) especially considering it was his age 24 year. Most immediately suspected he would continue to grow as a hitter, although, even in 2004, he was a terrible fielder (5 runs below replacement level in left). Austin Kearns was long considered the Reds premier hitting prospect, but after the 2004 season, Dunn became the best hitter on the team (even more evidenced by GM Wayne Krivsky's God-Awful 2006 trade with the Nationals, in which he sent Kearns and short-stop Felipe Lopez for a bag of balls, 2 bad arms and a an old short-stop who never could hit. One of the prospects is doing decently well at single A Dayton, however. Still, the trade was a tremendous bomb for the Reds.)
All seemed to be well for Dunn. According to BaseballReference.com, after his age 24 season, his most similar hitter up to that point was Hall of Famer Reggie Jackson. Although the strike-outs were bad, he was walking at a .16 clip, and the .388 On-Base Percentage was very good.
Then 2005 rolled around. Although not a terrible year, it was the start of the decline, although it went un-noticed by the stat-heads. His line (.247/.387/.540, .308 EqA, 45.0 VORP, 6.5 WARP1) was good, but it did qualify as a regression (although his defense improved to the tune of 2 runs above replacement at first and in left, explaining the same number of wins provided)
The future wasn't bleak by any stretch for Dunn after 2005 though. His BR comp after 2005 was Darryl Strawberry. That's admittedly not Reggie Jackson, but it's also not the end of the world. However, 2006 was a disaster.
Even though the Reds hung around until the bitter end of 2006, they did with a much regressed Adam Dunn. Dunn's batting line collapsed (.234/.365/.490, .282 EqA, 23.5 VORP, 3.6 WARP1) and he fell from being a dominant slugger to a mediocre one, especially for a left-fielder (he finished 14th in VORP in 2006 for all left-fielders with at least 300 PAs.) His defense also regressed back to his normal means (5 runs beneath replacement in left.)
One key thing to note about his on-base percentages in 05 and 06 (.387 and .365) are hugely dependant on his batting averages (.247 in 05 and .234 in 06). His walk rates in those two years? The exact same .16. His BABIPs? .281 and .279.
So, what does that mean? For all accounts and purposes, it looks like Dunn's 2004 was an outlier (he had a somewhat fluky .321 BABIP) and that his normal career path was never Jason Giambi or Reggie Jackson.
Dunn's becoming nothing more than a Matt Stairs esque player. He was born to play DH, but if his slugging percentage dips beneath .500 again, I'm not sure how valuable that is.
So, what should the Reds do? It appears that the team missed the boat in the off-season of 2004. Rumors were abundant that the Reds were shopping Dunn, but they bit in to the belief that Dunn was improving, and kept him. Now it appears that Dunn's went from an elite hitter to a roughly mediocre one. Add in his way below average speed and defensive ability, and Dunn's got limited trade value.
Some people believe that the Reds have hurt Dunn's progression. They have tried rigorously to cut down his strike outs, and in the process they may have permanently damaged his approach at the plate. That's a wound not easily healed, and the Reds probably aren't the place for him to re-learn things.
If a team such as the Yankees called and offered up a pair of pitchers like Tyler Clippard and Ian Kennedy (2 young arms that have limited ceilings,) it would behoove the Reds to pull the trigger. The days of Dunn being worth the moon are over. He won't be worth the money he'll make in 2008.
(Special Thanks to Justin, who helped me research the topic!!!)
Glossary of Terms
VORP: Value Over Replacement Player. The number of runs contributed beyond what a replacement-level player at the same position would contribute if given the same percentage of team plate appearances. VORP scores do not consider the quality of a player's defense.
EqA: Equivalent Average. A measure of total offensive value per out, with corrections for league offensive level, home park, and team pitching. EQA considers batting as well as baserunning, but not the value of a position player's defense. The EqA adjusted for all-time also has a correction for league difficulty. The scale is deliberately set to approximate that of batting average. League average EqA is always equal to .260. EqA is derived from Raw EqA, which is (H + TB + 1.5*(BB + HBP + SB) + SH + SF) divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SH + SF + CS + SB). REqA is then normalized to account for league difficulty and scale to create EqA.
WARP1: Wins Above Replacement Player, level 1. The number of wins this player contributed, above what a replacement level hitter, fielder, and pitcher would have done, with adjustments only for within the season. It should be noted that a team which is at replacement level in all three of batting, pitching, and fielding will be an extraordinarily bad team, on the order of 20-25 wins in a 162-game season.
(Definitions from the BaseballProspectus.com Glossary)
Why do the Reds want to deal Dunn?
1) They're out of contention. At 26-42, (but with a Pythagorean 30-37) the Reds have been unlucky, but still not particularly good. With top pitchers Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo and newly called up Homer Bailey locked up for 4, 4, and 6 years respectively, the Reds have a decent starting pitching core for the next few years. However, their best hitter this year, Ken Griffey Jr, is 37 years old and is, at this point, a near lock to top out at 400 ABs every year. Brandon Phillips, Joey Votto, Josh Hamilton and potentially Edwin Encarnacion form another decent core up the middle.
Still, even with average production from the rest of the spots in the lineup and rotation (a stretch), and above-average production from the "core" (Arroyo won't be a good starter in 3 years, Bailey could be a hit or miss guy, and some in the Reds organization consider Encarnacion a failure at this point), that's not necessarily a winner, even in the NL Central. The Brewers appear to have a decent team in line for the next few years, and the Cubs might be okay for a little while, depending on how Carlos Zambrano decides to get his money, either from the Cubs or from some other team.
2) The Fans and the Media in Cincy couldn't hate him anymore. Dunn's not a particularly alluring player. He's a serious defensive liability (5 runs below replacement in left field so far in 2007), strikes out a ton (he set the season record for K's in 04, and nearly bested it in 06), and his general "ogre-like" appearance and movements leave a bad taste in the mouths of many people. That's not to say he hasn't been a good player.
3) He's entering decline. Dunn was supposed to be a big ole' slugging machine, and for a while, it looked like he was entering a Jason Giambi-esque career path. His 2004 batting line was tremendous (.266/.388/.569, .316 EqA, 53.4 VORP, 6.5 WARP1, ) especially considering it was his age 24 year. Most immediately suspected he would continue to grow as a hitter, although, even in 2004, he was a terrible fielder (5 runs below replacement level in left). Austin Kearns was long considered the Reds premier hitting prospect, but after the 2004 season, Dunn became the best hitter on the team (even more evidenced by GM Wayne Krivsky's God-Awful 2006 trade with the Nationals, in which he sent Kearns and short-stop Felipe Lopez for a bag of balls, 2 bad arms and a an old short-stop who never could hit. One of the prospects is doing decently well at single A Dayton, however. Still, the trade was a tremendous bomb for the Reds.)
All seemed to be well for Dunn. According to BaseballReference.com, after his age 24 season, his most similar hitter up to that point was Hall of Famer Reggie Jackson. Although the strike-outs were bad, he was walking at a .16 clip, and the .388 On-Base Percentage was very good.
Then 2005 rolled around. Although not a terrible year, it was the start of the decline, although it went un-noticed by the stat-heads. His line (.247/.387/.540, .308 EqA, 45.0 VORP, 6.5 WARP1) was good, but it did qualify as a regression (although his defense improved to the tune of 2 runs above replacement at first and in left, explaining the same number of wins provided)
The future wasn't bleak by any stretch for Dunn after 2005 though. His BR comp after 2005 was Darryl Strawberry. That's admittedly not Reggie Jackson, but it's also not the end of the world. However, 2006 was a disaster.
Even though the Reds hung around until the bitter end of 2006, they did with a much regressed Adam Dunn. Dunn's batting line collapsed (.234/.365/.490, .282 EqA, 23.5 VORP, 3.6 WARP1) and he fell from being a dominant slugger to a mediocre one, especially for a left-fielder (he finished 14th in VORP in 2006 for all left-fielders with at least 300 PAs.) His defense also regressed back to his normal means (5 runs beneath replacement in left.)
One key thing to note about his on-base percentages in 05 and 06 (.387 and .365) are hugely dependant on his batting averages (.247 in 05 and .234 in 06). His walk rates in those two years? The exact same .16. His BABIPs? .281 and .279.
So, what does that mean? For all accounts and purposes, it looks like Dunn's 2004 was an outlier (he had a somewhat fluky .321 BABIP) and that his normal career path was never Jason Giambi or Reggie Jackson.
Dunn's becoming nothing more than a Matt Stairs esque player. He was born to play DH, but if his slugging percentage dips beneath .500 again, I'm not sure how valuable that is.
So, what should the Reds do? It appears that the team missed the boat in the off-season of 2004. Rumors were abundant that the Reds were shopping Dunn, but they bit in to the belief that Dunn was improving, and kept him. Now it appears that Dunn's went from an elite hitter to a roughly mediocre one. Add in his way below average speed and defensive ability, and Dunn's got limited trade value.
Some people believe that the Reds have hurt Dunn's progression. They have tried rigorously to cut down his strike outs, and in the process they may have permanently damaged his approach at the plate. That's a wound not easily healed, and the Reds probably aren't the place for him to re-learn things.
If a team such as the Yankees called and offered up a pair of pitchers like Tyler Clippard and Ian Kennedy (2 young arms that have limited ceilings,) it would behoove the Reds to pull the trigger. The days of Dunn being worth the moon are over. He won't be worth the money he'll make in 2008.
(Special Thanks to Justin, who helped me research the topic!!!)
Glossary of Terms
VORP: Value Over Replacement Player. The number of runs contributed beyond what a replacement-level player at the same position would contribute if given the same percentage of team plate appearances. VORP scores do not consider the quality of a player's defense.
EqA: Equivalent Average. A measure of total offensive value per out, with corrections for league offensive level, home park, and team pitching. EQA considers batting as well as baserunning, but not the value of a position player's defense. The EqA adjusted for all-time also has a correction for league difficulty. The scale is deliberately set to approximate that of batting average. League average EqA is always equal to .260. EqA is derived from Raw EqA, which is (H + TB + 1.5*(BB + HBP + SB) + SH + SF) divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SH + SF + CS + SB). REqA is then normalized to account for league difficulty and scale to create EqA.
WARP1: Wins Above Replacement Player, level 1. The number of wins this player contributed, above what a replacement level hitter, fielder, and pitcher would have done, with adjustments only for within the season. It should be noted that a team which is at replacement level in all three of batting, pitching, and fielding will be an extraordinarily bad team, on the order of 20-25 wins in a 162-game season.
(Definitions from the BaseballProspectus.com Glossary)
Thursday, June 14, 2007
Who's The AL MVP? (Edited for the Senior Circuit!)
In April, it seemed rather clear that Alex Rodriguez was on his way to his 3rd AL MVP. 14 Homers. 34 RBI. 2 Walk Off Home Runs. No one could touch him.
In May, he slumped to the tune of about a .750 OPS, and someone passed him in VORP and in OPS.
Hello, Mr. Ordonez! Where have ye been?
That's right folks, Magglio Ordonez is trucking along to the tune of a .354 EQA and a league-leading 47.3 VORP. His 1.104 OPS, is 2nd in the AL behind Rodriguez.
So, it appears this whole MVP thing is turning into a quagmire! Who to chose?
Well, it's not like Rodriguez has simply quit. His own .344 EQA, 45.5 VORP and 1.110 OPS are all quite good. Also, his WARP1 is 5.1, besting Ordonez's 4.4. (WARP1 takes into account defense...Rodriguez is 2 runs above average at Third, Ordonez is 3 below average in Right.)
But, there's one key teeny-tiny little stat that should be considered. It's called BABIP. It means, in layman's terms, the percentage of balls put in play that turn into hits. Typical averages are around .280, and anything drastically lower or higher can usually point towards a regression to the mean.
Magglio Ordonez's 2007 BABIP: .383
Alex Rodriguez's 2007 BABIP: .306
Looks like Rodriguez is getting a few lucky bounces, while Ordonez is about 70 points higher than normal. He isn't likely to stay at .383 and when it drops, so will the Batting Average, (his own league-leading .371 average will end up around .300, and with it the VORP, EQA and OPS.)
So, if I voted today, my vote would have to go to Ordonez. But chances are, Magglio will regress, and Rodriguez will end up challenged by a superior hitter, one like Travis Hafner or Vladimir Guerrero.
Ok, on the to Senior Circuit folks.
If you watch ESPN, the first name that will pop into your head when someone says "NL MVP" is the new face of the Mets, Jose Reyes.
I can't say I'd disagree too much with that. The NL has a bunch of really good players so far, but no A-Rod type performance that sets someone apart.
Here are your NL leaders in VORP as of June 18th:
1. Matt Holliday- 35. 1
2. Miguel Cabrera- 34.4
3. Chase Utley- 32.9
4. Jose Reyes- 32.1
5. Hanley Ramirez- 31.2
Difference between #1 and #5? 3.9. That's incredibly close. Now, the NL Leaders in OPS:
1. Barry Bonds- 1.073
2. Matt Holliday- 1.015
3. Miguel Cabrera- 1.013
4. Prince Fielder- 1.011
5. Chase Utley- .969
Still incredibly close, at least between #1-#4. A familiar face fills the first position, and the Prince fills the 4 hole.
Matt Holliday is 1st in VORP and 2nd in OPS (with a .320 EqA and a 4.3 WARP1). However, Holliday's BABIP is incredible (.409) and therefore almost guaranteed to drop about 50 points (his career BABIP is .344) and with that most of his rate stats. Still, a 60 VORP year is well within his grasp.
Reyes and fellow young stud short-stop Hanley Ramirez nearly cancel one another out. 32.1 (Reyes) vs 31.2 (Ramirez) in VORP scores. .861 OPS vs .879 OPS. .306 vs .311 in EQA. 4.1 vs 3.4 in WARP1.
I can't really see a winner in that debate, so we'll move on to who I think has been the premier player in the NL this year (so far)...
Chase Utley.
Yep, Chase is the best player in the NL right now. His EqA is a fantastic .322, and his WARP1 is an incredible 5.3 (he's already provided the Phils with 5 wins, and it's June? Wha-what?) His BABIP is 2o points higher than normal, but this could end being Utley's career year.
(Note: this is all subject to change when Phat Albert reclaims his throne as the best player in baseball.)
The Cy-Young discussion will begin later this week!
In May, he slumped to the tune of about a .750 OPS, and someone passed him in VORP and in OPS.
Hello, Mr. Ordonez! Where have ye been?
That's right folks, Magglio Ordonez is trucking along to the tune of a .354 EQA and a league-leading 47.3 VORP. His 1.104 OPS, is 2nd in the AL behind Rodriguez.
So, it appears this whole MVP thing is turning into a quagmire! Who to chose?
Well, it's not like Rodriguez has simply quit. His own .344 EQA, 45.5 VORP and 1.110 OPS are all quite good. Also, his WARP1 is 5.1, besting Ordonez's 4.4. (WARP1 takes into account defense...Rodriguez is 2 runs above average at Third, Ordonez is 3 below average in Right.)
But, there's one key teeny-tiny little stat that should be considered. It's called BABIP. It means, in layman's terms, the percentage of balls put in play that turn into hits. Typical averages are around .280, and anything drastically lower or higher can usually point towards a regression to the mean.
Magglio Ordonez's 2007 BABIP: .383
Alex Rodriguez's 2007 BABIP: .306
Looks like Rodriguez is getting a few lucky bounces, while Ordonez is about 70 points higher than normal. He isn't likely to stay at .383 and when it drops, so will the Batting Average, (his own league-leading .371 average will end up around .300, and with it the VORP, EQA and OPS.)
So, if I voted today, my vote would have to go to Ordonez. But chances are, Magglio will regress, and Rodriguez will end up challenged by a superior hitter, one like Travis Hafner or Vladimir Guerrero.
Ok, on the to Senior Circuit folks.
If you watch ESPN, the first name that will pop into your head when someone says "NL MVP" is the new face of the Mets, Jose Reyes.
I can't say I'd disagree too much with that. The NL has a bunch of really good players so far, but no A-Rod type performance that sets someone apart.
Here are your NL leaders in VORP as of June 18th:
1. Matt Holliday- 35. 1
2. Miguel Cabrera- 34.4
3. Chase Utley- 32.9
4. Jose Reyes- 32.1
5. Hanley Ramirez- 31.2
Difference between #1 and #5? 3.9. That's incredibly close. Now, the NL Leaders in OPS:
1. Barry Bonds- 1.073
2. Matt Holliday- 1.015
3. Miguel Cabrera- 1.013
4. Prince Fielder- 1.011
5. Chase Utley- .969
Still incredibly close, at least between #1-#4. A familiar face fills the first position, and the Prince fills the 4 hole.
Matt Holliday is 1st in VORP and 2nd in OPS (with a .320 EqA and a 4.3 WARP1). However, Holliday's BABIP is incredible (.409) and therefore almost guaranteed to drop about 50 points (his career BABIP is .344) and with that most of his rate stats. Still, a 60 VORP year is well within his grasp.
Reyes and fellow young stud short-stop Hanley Ramirez nearly cancel one another out. 32.1 (Reyes) vs 31.2 (Ramirez) in VORP scores. .861 OPS vs .879 OPS. .306 vs .311 in EQA. 4.1 vs 3.4 in WARP1.
I can't really see a winner in that debate, so we'll move on to who I think has been the premier player in the NL this year (so far)...
Chase Utley.
Yep, Chase is the best player in the NL right now. His EqA is a fantastic .322, and his WARP1 is an incredible 5.3 (he's already provided the Phils with 5 wins, and it's June? Wha-what?) His BABIP is 2o points higher than normal, but this could end being Utley's career year.
(Note: this is all subject to change when Phat Albert reclaims his throne as the best player in baseball.)
The Cy-Young discussion will begin later this week!
Wednesday, June 13, 2007
Move Over Brad Ausmus!
Your no longer the worst catcher in baseball! It's time for the Jason Kendall Watch!
Through June 13th, here is Jason Kendall's batting line:
.199/.240./.212 -16.2 VORP with a stunning .151 EQA.
He would have to bump all of his slash stats up at least 50 points to meet his 10th Percentile PECOTA Projection (.238/.309/.286).
Here's hopin you do it Jason!
Through June 13th, here is Jason Kendall's batting line:
.199/.240./.212 -16.2 VORP with a stunning .151 EQA.
He would have to bump all of his slash stats up at least 50 points to meet his 10th Percentile PECOTA Projection (.238/.309/.286).
Here's hopin you do it Jason!
A Worthy Cause
Green Day recently released their newest single since the kinda-sorta failure "Jesus Of Suburbia", entitled Working Class Hero. It's a re-hash of a John Lennon cult-classic, but the song itself isn't the story.
This Is
Is there anything better to support?
This Is
Is there anything better to support?
The Introduction
Hello all! I am Brk, the ruler of these here parts! Welcome to my blog, where I will post a lot of different things. Baseball is my passion, and therefore I will often post my thoughts on matters concerning the Yankees (I love 'em, so I guess I better duck and cover), SABRmetric endeavors, the idiocy of numerous journalists, announcers and fans, and a FireJoeMorgan esque look at some of my most "entertaining" conversations regarding the sport.
Baseball isn't all I will write about though. I am a cook at a local diner, so I'll probably give you something about that. I will write about political things, and generally just stuff that gets me all riled up.
Should be fun.
I hope you enjoy the ride.
Baseball isn't all I will write about though. I am a cook at a local diner, so I'll probably give you something about that. I will write about political things, and generally just stuff that gets me all riled up.
Should be fun.
I hope you enjoy the ride.
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